Coal prices fell across the curve even as oil and gas prices stabilised somewhat. Physical RB1 is trading at a slight discount to paper, whilst the RB3 differential has blown out to around $16 as reduced demand from India for SA coal weighs on exports.
The firm RBCT vessel queue is looking quite sparse now, although railings to the port are also only achieving around 70% capacity. Indian government reforms to raise domestic production and cut imports have been delayed yet again. As the country experiences its own lockdown, there has been a further drop in coal power demand and record stockpiles building up at both mine and power stations.
Other Asian demand remains weak with spot Australian FOB prices trading only slightly higher than SA prices.
Mozambique is not halting any coal deliveries ex Matola or Beira, even as the government has also declared a state of emergency in the country. Minerals Council South Africa is working with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy on a plan for all mining to recommence, even as President Ramaphosa announced a lockdown extension to end April.
Going forward, it will not be business as usual, although mining is generally well capacitated to ensure safe and healthy operations.