Research firm Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research says global tin mine production is likely to contract this year as government mandated closures, a deteriorating economic environment and low tin prices push miners to reduce output.
The firm expects global tin mine production to contract by 3.4% year-on-year, with production losses primarily felt over the first half of the year, before recovering over the second half of the year.
Tin mine production in China is expected to contract by 3% year-on-year following supply chain bottlenecks and movement restrictions put in place in the first quarter to stymie the spread of Covid-19.
In Peru, production is expected to contract by 2% year-on-year as a result of measures to halt the spread of the disease.
Further, over the coming years, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research forecasts global tin mine production growth to slow considerably as stringent environmental regulations and a relatively thin project pipeline weigh on global output.
The firm expects modest output growth in Indonesia, capped by regulatory uncertainty.
Myanmar is, however, expected to maintain its status as a top ten tin producer over Fitch’s forecast period to 2029, although growth will be weighted to the 2024 to 2029 period.
This risks to the firm's production forecast are slated on the downside.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research explains that details about tin mining projects and expansion plans in countries such as Myanmar, Indonesia and China are not regularly reported compared with other counties, which could cause its forecast to be overly optimistic as it weights its growth rates more closely to price increases.