Trade conditions in South Africa remained positive, despite the tightening of international and retail trade, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) said earlier this month.
The industry body’s Trade Conditions Survey for June showed that the seasonally adjusted trade activity index (TAI) dipped by one point to 56, after declining by eight index points in May.
This was a marked change from the seasonally adjusted high of 65 points in April.
Sacci said a positive trend in trade conditions could be observed from October, but warned that it would be characterised by volatility.
“With households under pressure from high debt levels and associated debt service costs, rising prices and with global economic growth under strain, trade conditions are likely to tighten somewhat in the second half of 2013. The TAI, nevertheless, measured 55, on average, in the first half of 2013, compared with 53, on average, in the first half of 2012,” the chamber stated.
Sales volumes and inventories were the only trade components that declined between May and June, while all the other elements remained virtually unchanged.
Backlogs on orders, however, increased from 44 to 50 in June. The pressure from input costs on sales prices remained high with a seven points differential between the sales price index of 64 and the input prices index of 71, in June.
Meanwhile, survey respondents were optimistic about prospects for the next six months, despite indications of a tighter trade environment later in the year.
The seasonally adjusted trade expectations index averaged 63 for the first half of the year, the same as for the first half of 2012, while prospects for sales volumes, new orders, inventories and supplies remained in positive territory.
Sacci said the pressure on input and sales prices would remain high, with 78% and 67% of respon- dents respectively, expecting rising prices in the second half of 2013.