JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – A partial recovery in the prices of gold, platinum, palladium and silver is expected this year, a new survey by the London Bullion Market Association has found.
The 2016 Forecast Survey, in which 36 analysts participated, showed bullish prospects, with increases of between 1.1% and 5.4% from the prices achieved during the first half of last month, forecast for the four metals this year.
While the average prices of all the surveyed commodities were well below the highs of 2015, the contributing analysts were more bullish about the prospects of precious metals prices in 2016 than they were in last year’s survey.
Compared with the prices seen during the first half of January, the gold price was expected to experience a modest 1.1% uptick to an average of $1 103/oz for the full year – $57/oz below the actual average price in 2015 – with those surveyed predicting prices of between $960/oz and $1 225/oz.
The price of silver and platinum, which averaged $13.98/oz and $864/oz respectively in January, would increase 5.4% to a respective $14.74/oz and $911/oz.
This was below the average of $15.68/oz for silver and $1 053/oz for platinum reported in 2015.
A more significant 12.7% surge to $568/oz was forecast for palladium prices; however, this also remained well below the $691.63/oz achieved in 2015.
The size and frequency of US Federal price hikes and the impact on the strength of the dollar were expected to be the biggest driver of the gold price, followed by political and economic uncertainty in the European Union, Asia and the Middle East.
“Prices are expected to bottom out in the first half of the year and rally in the second half, boosted by demand from investors in Europe and Asia. The prospect of devaluations in the renminbi and support from investors in China are expected to help prop up the price,” the survey noted.
Silver prices were expected to trade between $12.63/oz and $16.78/oz, with possible further supply deficits and a rise in jewellery and industrial demand, bolstering the price during the year.
Positive influences on platinum prices, which would range from $748/oz to $1 076/oz, included the prospect of supply deficits, strong automotive demand, limited strikes and the outcome of wage negotiations in South Africa.
Palladium prices would rise on a continued supply deficit and the prospect of strong demand from gasoline automotive sales growth.