Gold 'not cheap', but no bubble either

25th September 2010 By: Liezel Hill

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Market watchers at this weekend's Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference were by and large in agreement on Saturday that the price of gold, which reached above $1 300/oz for the first time on Friday, is not in a bubble.

That said, financial commentator and editor of The Grandich Letter Peter Grandich added that the metal could no longer be described as “cheap”.

“That doesn't mean you go out and sell it, it doesn't mean that the rally is over, but I don't think it's cheap any more,” he commented.

Grandich correctly forecast the price of gold would reach $1 300/oz this year, and is predicting that the metal will hit $1 500/oz in 2011.

One of the things to look for is when forecasters that have been repeatedly correct in predicting higher gold prices, start turning bearish, Grandich commented.

“We haven't seen the atypical indications of sentiment where tops and bubbles are created,” he said.

“And so I believe gold will continue to work higher.”

Frank Holmes
, the CEO of US Global Investors, agreed that gold was not in a bubble.

“If you take a look at previous cycles, super cycles, we're far from it,” he said.

“If gold were to go to 1980 prices like most commodities have gone to, gold would be over $2 300/oz,” Holmes commented.

He said that the price was being supported on the one hand by 'price makers' - the central banks and investors buying the metalas an alternative to stocks, other assets and even currencies amid concerns over quantative easing, but also by 'price takers', as the traditional gold-buying season in Asia is now in full swing.

“And when you get the gold makers and the gold takers standing in line at the same time, you get huge spikes in the price of gold.”

Speaking later on Saturday morning, the Midas Letter's James West said he expects to see gold “solidly” over $1 300/oz by the end of this year.

“The only bull market for the next two to five years that I can see coming is gold, and all things related to gold – precious metals, platinum-group metals” West commented.

He expects to see the price rise to $1 300/oz, $1 400/oz and even $1 500/oz at some point.

“Even if it just continues with the trend of an average $87 a year price increase...there is nothing to indicate that this upward trend that has been happening for ten years is going to change.”

One analyst who is likely to disagree with the 'not in a bubble' camp is Kitco's John Nadler, who was scheduled to speak at the conference later on Saturday and on Sunday.

Nadler was quoted in the Globe and Mail newspaper on Saturday as warning that the strong flows of hedge fund money into gold, and increasing media attention the metal is getting, suggests that the rally may be on shaky footing.

“It’s a mania that smells like a bubble,” Nadler was quoted as saying.