This year is forecast to be the second strongest year for industrial platinum demand on record, despite the challenging economic conditions that are prevailing, industry organisation the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) says.
Demand is expected to increase by 10% to 2.3-million ounces, with a notable increase in demand from the glass industry.
The robustness of the 2023 industrial platinum demand forecast is rooted in strong and diversified foundations which leave it well-insulated from the nearer-term recessionary outlook, the council explains.
It contextualises that 2021 was a record year for industrial platinum demand, reaching 2.45-million ounces. This was primarily owing to considerable glass manufacturing capacity expansions which were not repeated to the same extent in 2022, resulting in a 14% year-on-year reduction in demand last year to 2.11-million ounces.
Again, for this year, much of the predicted growth in industrial demand for platinum is owing to capacity expansions in the glass industry which have already been committed, meaning they are likely to go ahead irrespective of economic conditions, thereby providing a high degree of certainty, the council points out.
CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
Driven by anticipated growth in capacity expansions in China, as well as fibreglass plant projects in Egypt, platinum glass demand is expected to jump by 52% to 481 000 oz this year – more than double the level in pre-pandemic 2019.
This reflects the growing role of glass fibre reinforced materials in reducing carbon emissions, in applications such as vehicle light-weighting and wind power, the council explains.
In other industrial demand sectors, continued strong chemical, medical and other demand are also likely to more than offset weaker outlooks for the petroleum and electrical subsectors this year, the WPIC notes.
In the chemicals sector, demand is forecast to increase by 6% to 666 000 oz this year, albeit remaining similar to the five-year average.
Following a turbulent three-year period from 2020 to 2022, the nitric acid industry is expected to recover, becoming the largest contributor to overall growth in chemical platinum offtake.
Elsewhere, faster development of Chinese propane dehydrogenation capacity, following a slow 2022, and expanded capacity in North America, Poland and Kazakhstan, will add to platinum demand, the council outlines.
It adds that platinum use in the paraxylene and silicone markets will remain broadly level year-on-year. The slowing economic outlook and elevated gas prices are expected to weigh on European silicone demand, offsetting improvements in China and other emerging markets.
Meanwhile, platinum demand from the petroleum industry is projected to decline by 10% to 180 000 oz this year, with the International Energy Agency downgrading expectations for oil demand owing to the slowing global economy.
Medical demand is expected to resume its growth trend as the impact of the pandemic recedes, with forecasts showing a 3% increase to 283 000 oz, surpassing the 2019 pre-pandemic level for the first time.
Emerging markets, notably China and India, will see the greatest increase in demand owing to their high-growth medical industries, the council highlights.
Other industrial demand is expected to rise by 3% to 599 000 oz this year.
While the improvement in demand for spark plugs and sensors are the main drivers for the growth here, the contribution from the hydrogen economy, albeit from a low base, is also growing, the WPIC explains.
It notes that, this year, demand from stationary fuel cells will increase 24% and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyser demand by as much as 129%.