XMP Consulting senior coal analyst Xavier Prevost
Coal consulting firm XMP Consulting senior coal analyst Xavier Prevost has stressed that coal is not “dead” and that South Africa’s coal resources remain abundant and can provide low-emitting, cost-effective, reliable and sustainable power well into the future with the correct technology.
He called for renewed investment into coal owing to its continued critical role in energy production.
“We are producing less coal in South Africa but the demand is still increasing,” he said during the Fossil Fuel Foundation Carbon's Coal Conference 2022 held in Middelburg, Mpumalanga, on April 1.
He said the belief that global coal production had reached its peak and would now decline until it was replaced by other, cleaner sources of energy was fallacious in that it assumed that there was another source of energy – one that was more dependable, abundant and cheap than coal – that could replace coal.
He pointed out that, according to intergovernmental organisation the International Energy Agency and nonprofit organisation the World Coal Association, coal demand continued to increase.
Moreover, for poorer countries, coal is the only alternative to energy poverty, he said.
Prevost noted that, as a result of the current lack of incentives and capital to implement new coal projects, South African production has remained stagnant. However, because some of the older big mines’ reserves are almost exhausted, production will soon drop drastically.
This “coal cliff” is expected to occur in about 2025 owing to the coal sector suffering from a lack of finance, a lack of exploration and fragmentation of the market, which has led to more smaller operations.
Prevost said that while coal blocks were being mined to depletion in the current established mining areas, considerable resources remained available in further afield coalfields in South Africa.
He added that, although coal qualities were reducing as the higher-grade seams have been exploited, new technologies were being introduced to use low-grade coal – such as underground coal gasification, fluidised bed combustion, supercritical pulverised fuel, and integrated coal gasification cycle, besides others.
Prevost said that, because new coalfields were a greater distance from the business hub and were lacking in terms of water and logistics, dry technologies were being developed.
“Although there are other sources of energy in the country, they will never be able to compete with coal in price and reliability of supply,” he concluded.