Gold has been the immediate beneficiary of the surprising decision by Britain to exit the European Union (EU).
The World Gold Council (WGC) has been quick to provide foresight, which we hope South Africa’s gold mining companies and the South African government are able to perceive as well.
The WGC foresees “strong and sustained” inflows into the gold market driven by a “staggering level of protracted uncertainty that investors now face”.
As the WGC was outlining gold’s remarkable opportunity, the dollar gold price surged 6% to $1 313.85/oz, as investors scrambled for a much-needed safe haven, and the rand gold price soared to all-time record heights.
Simultaneously, the British pound fell to a 31-year low and world equity markets plummeted, with the need for physical gold being marked by London gold trading company Sharps Pixley experiencing its busiest day ever.
Sharps Pixley’s online sales drained stocks of larger bullion bars and a call had to be made on emergency reserves of kilobars from Germany.
Coin sales went through the roof as CEO Ross Norman put out a release on gold’s wealth preservation properties and the ability of the precious metal to protect investors against currency weakness and political uncertainty.
As Mining Weekly reported shortly before the surprising Brexit announcement, the Bank of England holds the lion’s share of South Africa’s offshore bullion stocks, which, at last count, totalled four- million ounces.
With the gold price surge, South Africa’s stocks are worth well over the nigh-$5-billion revealed by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in his written reply to Opposition Shadow Finance Minister David Maynier.
One could argue that, in refusing to answer Maynier’s request for details of the cost of storage, transport and transacting, our Finance Minister showed a regrettable reluctance to play open cards at a time when transparency should be the order of the day.
At the end of February, the value of South Africa’s official four-million-ounce reserve – held mainly by the Bank of England – was $4.96-billion, or R75-billion, at March 9’s exchange rate of R15.17 to the dollar.
In addition to the South African Reserve Bank performing reconcilia- tions on the gold held internationally and locally, senior reserve bank officials regularly conduct due diligence visits to inspect gold reserves held offshore, with the last such visit having taken place in 2015.
But, on this score, Gordhan again showed regrettable reluctance to make report-backs public, on the grounds that they contained confidential information.
Fitch group research firm BMI does not see this as a flash in the pan and expects gold to gain momentum in the coming weeks.
Moreover, the movement of interest rates into even greater negative territory will be another plus for gold.
As Brexit has no economic parallel, uncertainty will haunt every step that Britain takes in disconnecting itself with the EU, which again plays right into the hands of gold.
What a pity South Africa now stands behind Peru as the world’s fifth-largest gold producer.