Copper mining waste reprocessing company Big Tree Copper CE Jan Nelson expects a steady climb in demand for copper over the next three decades, as the world has turned its full attention to sustainable energy and a greener economy.
Demand is expected to exceed supply, with an expected upward trajectory of about 16% to 20% by the end of the decade. At current production rates, a deficit of at least six-million tonnes is forecast. It is a key component in green energy, from electric cars to wind turbine power supply.
“Sating demand, even in the next 20 years, may be challenging at this pace. There is not enough exploration presently to allow for the development of viable sources in good time,” Nelson says.
Given the metal’s history in the market, he believes the wild-card nature of copper’s pricing will continue to see short- and near-term fluctuations, but a longer view forecasts an incremental upward trajectory.
“This is good news for South Africa and the Northern Cape. The province holds a substantial reserve of deposits and recyclable copper oxide waste. The current view is that there is at least a century of copper in the ground, with a potential provincial output of six-million to ten-million tonnes,” Nelson says.
He sees increased exploration interest in the area concomitant with growing economic activity. Coupled with increased recycling efforts and mining in other areas of South Africa, copper could become the new gold for South Africa, he states.
Recent panic over the conflict in Ukraine and its concomitant threat to Europe’s reliance on Russian energy resulted in a surge in copper prices to about $10 900/t. Pricing has since eased but, over the next few decades, demand should steadily increase, with a long-term view of 500% growth by 2050, Nelson says.