VANCOUVER (miningweekly.com) – The world refined copper balance for the first four months of 2017 indicates a surplus of about 80 000 t, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported on Thursday.

It ascribed the surplus mainly to a decline in Chinese apparent demand, a market that currently accounts for about 48% of the world copper refined usage.

The ICSG estimated that global apparent refined usage declined by about 3% in the first four months of the year, with preliminary data indicating that world usage, excluding China, might have grown slightly by about 0.5%. However, any growth was more than offset by a 7% decline in Chinese apparent demand.

Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in unreported stocks) declined despite refined copper output increasing by 6.5%, and net imports of refined copper declined by 36%.

Among other major copper using countries, usage increased in India, Japan and Taiwan, but declined in the US and in Germany. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have declined in all regions, including 2% in Africa; 3% in Asia (when excluding China, Asia usage increased by 7%); by 1% in the Americas and by 6% in Europe.

The ICSG estimated world mine output to have declined by about 3.5% in the first four months of 2017, with concentrate output declining by 3% and solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) declining by 5%.

The decline in world mine production was mainly owing to a 12% decline in output in Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing country, negatively affected by the strike at the Escondida mine and lower output from Codelco mines.

Further, a decline in Canada and Mongolia concentrates output of 19% and 22%, respectively, mainly owing to lower grades in planned mining sequencing, also weighed on global output, while a 14% decline in Indonesian concentrate output was exacerbated by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April.

However, the study group noted, the overall decline was partially offset by a 13% and 7% rise in Mexican (concentrate and SX-EW) and Peruvian (concentrate) output, respectively, with both countries benefiting from new and expanded capacity that was not yet fully available in the same period of last year.

On a regional basis, production rose by 4% in Europe (including Russia) and 7% in Oceania, while declining by 6% in the Americas, 1.5% in Asia and 4% in Africa.

World refined output is estimated to have remained unchanged in the first four months, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning) declining by 2% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 12%.

Based on the average of stock estimates provided by independent consultants, China’s bonded stocks increased by about 140 000 t in the first four months of 2017, from the year-end 2016 level. Bonded stocks increased by a similar 140 000 t in the same period of last year.

As of the end of June, copper stocks held at the significant metal exchanges totalled 602 831 t, an increase of 63 758 t (12%) from stocks held at the end of December 2016. Compared with the December 2016 levels, stocks were down at the London Metals Exchange (-11%) and up at Shanghai Futures Exchange (20%) and COMEX (83%).