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Record wind power growth predicted, despite Covid-19 crisis

20th November 2020

By: Simone Liedtke

Creamer Media Social Media Editor & Senior Writer

     

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Wind power will continue to show record growth over the next five years, despite the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis, and will “make a crucial contribution to economic recovery”, says the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).

Its latest market outlook, published on November 5 by GWEC Market Intelligence, states that 71.3 GW of wind power capacity is expected to be installed this year, despite the impacts of the pandemic – a mere 6% decrease from pre-Covid forecasts.

The council says this is a “significant increase” from initial predictions for wind power installations to decrease by up to 20%, owing to the pandemic and, therefore, “demonstrates the resilience of the wind power industry across the globe”.

From 2020 to 2024, the GWEC expects the cumulative global wind energy market to grow at a compound yearly rate of 8.5%. It expects 348 GW of new capacity to be installed, taking total global wind power capacity to nearly 1 000 GW by the end of 2024.

While some project completion dates have been pushed into 2021 as a result of the pandemic, 2021 is expected to be a record year for the wind industry, with 78 GW of new wind capacity expected to be installed.

Over 50% of the onshore wind capacity to be added between 2020 to 2024 will be installed in China and the US, led by installation rushes to meet subsidy deadlines.

The offshore wind sector has, however, been largely shielded from the impacts of the Covid-19 crisis, and GWEC Market Intelligence has increased its forecast for offshore wind by 5% to 6.5 GW of new installations this year, marking another record year for the industry, led by the installation rush in China.

Until 2024, over 48 GW of new offshore wind capacity is expected to be installed, with another 157 GW forecast to be installed from 2025 to 2030.

GWEC CEO Ben Backwell comments that, while the Covid-19 crisis has affected every industry across the world, “wind power has continued to grow and thrive”.

“This is no surprise, given the cost competitiveness of wind energy and the need to rapidly reduce carbon emissions. Fossil fuel industries face market fluctuations and require bail-outs to stay afloat, while wind turbines across the world have continued to spin and provide affordable, clean energy to citizens everywhere.”

He adds that, thanks to the localised nature of wind power supply chains and project construction, the sector has continued to generate billions in local investment and thousands of jobs to support economic recovery.

However, to tap into the full potential of wind power to drive a green recovery, Backwell notes that governments “must ensure that energy markets and policies allow a continued ramp-up in investment in wind and other renewables, while disincentivising investment in expensive and declining fossil fuel industries”.

GWEC strategic director Feng Zhao, meanwhile, says that China and the US will continue to be the two main markets driving growth over the next few years.

“We have increased or maintained our forecasts for onshore wind in regions such as Latin America, North America, Africa, and the Middle East over the next five years, with only minor decreases in Asia Pacific and Europe.”

However, Zhao warns these reductions are not necessarily a direct impact of Covid-19, suggesting they could also be a symptom of pre-existing regulatory issues, such as protracted permitting procedures, which are slowing down installations.

“We have seen a series of carbon-neutrality commitments by major economies, such as China, Japan and South Korea, over the past few weeks. Since wind power is a key technology for decarbonisation, these targets will increase the forecast for wind power over the next few decades,” he further explains.

However, the right enabling regulatory and policy frameworks must be in place to accelerate renewable energy growth to meet these targets, and China, the world’s largest wind power market and largest carbon emitter, has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2060.

“To have a chance at achieving this target, we need to be installing 50 GW of wind power per year in China from now until 2025, and then 60 GW from 2026 onwards. It is crucial that governments firm up carbon-neutrality targets with tangible actions to drive wind and other renewable-energy growth at the levels needed to achieve these aims,” Zhao says.

Edited by Chanel de Bruyn
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor Online

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