Weekly Coal Index Report
Even as US coal production continues to slide, and domestic consumption is cut, it emerged that the United States was the major beneficiary of China’s ban on Australian coal imports from the fourth quarter of 2020. This was arguably more for coking coal than thermal coal, but it’s interesting to see the US play its traditional swing supplier role once more, along with Canada and Russia.
Freight rates have started to soften in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins now, as the surging demand over the last few weeks has come off the boil. There is now more focus on getting competitive free on board deals done. In a pattern seen across much of South-East Asia, China cut its coal use to around 56% of total energy consumption by end 2020.
However, total coal consumption rose amid record industrial output and the completion of dozens of new coal-fired power plants.The rapid roll-out of renewable-energy capacity and growing use of natgas has also helped reduce the share of coal consumption.Inagrowing trend around the world, many utilities are committing to zero-carbon by anywhere from 2030 –2050.
However, the speed of coal plant retirements would suggest that such talk is not being met by action on the ground. Meanwhile, in a sobering new paper, Lars Schernikau suggests that there are currently not nearly enough raw materials available globally for battery backup storage.
With MACD about to go negative, we could be in for a bit of a bumpy ride over the next few weeks. Of course, March pricing is a lot lower than spot February prices have been, so a push lower is anyway expected. Nevertheless, with the back end of the curve having risen nicely now too, the market does not appear to expect a major sell-off any time soon.
Momentum will most likely bottom sometime around April, which sets the market up for a resilient 2021 interms of pricing. Who would have ever thought that coal prices could be bullish in 2021
Comments
The
functionality
you are trying to access is only available to subscribers.
If you are already a subscriber, you can Login Here.
If you are not a subscriber, you can subscribe now, by selecting one of the below options.
For more information or assistance, please contact us at subscriptions@creamermedia.co.za.
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation