PERTH (miningweekly.com) – Lithium-ion battery recycling alone will be unable to meet global demand for battery raw materials, researcher Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) said.

The electrification of the transportation sector has caused a boom in demand for lithium-ion batteries, and global cumulative lithium-ion battery capacity could rise over five-fold to 5 500 GWh between 2021 and 2030. 

“With rapid expansion in the battery supply chain, we have created a situation of high waste. Recycling can reduce rapid expansion in carbon-intensive mines as well as reduce waste. Together, recycling production scrap and end-of-life batteries could become a substantial source of raw material to meet surging demand. Recycling also presents an opportunity to source materials in regions which lack natural resources,” Woodmac research analyst Max Read told the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in Mainz.

Currently demand for key battery raw materials stands at 97 000 t for lithium, 186 000 t cobalt and 3.01-million tonnes nickel. By 2030, these are expected to grow to 318 000 t, 264 000 t and 4.2-million tonnes, respectively.

Supply from recycled materials, though paling in comparison, is expected to reach 130 000 t for lithium, 112 000 t cobalt and 377 000 t nickel, respectively, by the end of the decade. 

At present, the challenges of recycled battery raw materials seem insurmountable. Most of the discussion has been around the collection and recycling of end-of-life electric vehicles (EVs), but the process is plagued with challenges, Read said.

Firstly, the cathode, which contains critical metals in the EV pack, is overpackaged with pack materials such as casings, interconnects, cooling channels and others. The result is a tedious recycling process with little value. Coupled with an industry push to use lower value materials, the move towards larger-sized EV packs is also a deterrence against recycling owing to lower throughput while containing lower value materials. 

Secondly, EV packs have long warranties and lifetimes. Recovering critical metals from them will be a long-term affair. In addition, the emergence of second-use applications, like residential or industrial energy storage, will also keep end-of-life EVs from entering the recycling system. 

As such, recycling production scrap will be the main source of recycled material this decade. China, Europe and North America will see huge increases in battery and cathode manufacturing to meet demand for batteries.

Globally, Woodmac expects battery manufacturing capacity to grow 3.5 times to over 4 621 GWh by 2030, with China leading the way. This presents an increasing market for production scrap. 

“At the end of the day, the amount of production scrap or EVs coming to end-of-life will never be able to meet demand while demand continues to increase. There needs to be a push in expanding virgin sourcing while maximising the recycling sector to ease the deficit,” Reid said.