The Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown regulations since March 27 have had a severe impact on economic activity, with mining production alone having decreased by 47.3% year-on-year in April.

Overall, platinum group metals (PGMs) production was down 62% year-on-year and contributed -14.6 percentage points to the overall mining production figure. Iron-ore production was down 68.7% year-on-year, contributing -7.5 percentage points, while gold was down by 59.6% year-on-year and contributed -6.9 percentage points.

Manganese ore production was down by 57.6% year-on-year and contributed -3.8 percentage points to the overall mining production figure reduction.

Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 34.1% in April, compared with March. This followed month-on-month changes of -17.9% in March and -3.3% in February.

Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 21.9% in the three months ended April, compared with the previous three months, and the largest negative contributors were PGMs (-27.5% and contributing -6.5 percentage points), iron-ore (-48.8% and contributing -5.8 percentage points), gold (-18.1% and contributing -2.3 percentage points) and other nonmetallic minerals (-35.4% and contributing -2.3 percentage points).

Mineral sales, meanwhile, decreased by 28.3% year-on-year in April, with the largest contributors being PGMs (-34.6% and contributing -8.1 percentage points); manganese ore (-71.6% and contributing -6.6 percentage points); iron-ore (-25.9% and contributing -4.1 percentage points) and coal (-15.4% and contributing -4.1 percentage points).

Seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices decreased by 36.4% in April compared with March, which followed month-on-month changes of 1.4% in March and -10.7% in February.

For the three months ended April, the seasonally adjusted value of mineral sales at current prices was 11.6% lower compared with the previous three months.

Financial services provider Nedbank's economic unit says the weak mining activity numbers were not unexpected as the mining industry, like most of the South African economy, had not been operating at full capacity since the second half of March, when the initial lockdown period was imposed nationwide.

Production is forecast to remain at these levels in May as well, after which much will depend on how quickly the country moves through the various levels of lockdown towards some semblance of normal operations.

On balance, mining production will probably end 2020 sharply lower, hurt by much weaker global demand and commodity prices, Nedbank comments.