A new International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis estimates that the global market for key mass-manufactured clean-energy technologies will grow by more than three times to $650-billion a year by 2030, heralding a “new industrial age” that could offer big dividends for countries that get their clean-energy industrial strategies right.

The ‘Energy Technology Perspectives 2023’ report also estimates that the related manufacturing jobs in the production of solar panels and wind turbines, as well as batteries, heat pumps, electrolysers and electric vehicles (EVs), will more than double from six-million to nearly 14-million by 2030.

The report stresses the need for greater diversification of suppliers, however, with the three largest producer countries currently accounting for at least 70% of manufacturing capacity and with China being the dominant producer, resulting in supply-chain risks.

“The world is already seeing the risks of tight supply chains, which have pushed up clean-energy technology prices in recent years, making countries’ clean-energy transitions more difficult and costly,” the report notes.

Likewise, mining for critical minerals is also concentrated in a few countries, with the Democratic Republic of Congo producing over 70% of the world’s cobalt, and with Australia, Chile and China accounting for more than 90% of global lithium production.

“Increasing prices for cobalt, lithium and nickel led to the first ever rise in EV battery prices, which jumped by nearly 10% globally in 2022.”

The report notes that major economies are acting to combine their climate, energy security and industrial policies into broader strategies for their economies.

“The Inflation Reduction Act in the US is a clear example of this, but there is also the Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU plan in the European Union, Japan’s Green Transformation programme, and the Production Linked Incentive scheme in India that encourages manufacturing of solar PV and batteries – and China is working to meet and even exceed the goals of its latest Five-Year Plan.”

In South Africa, work has been under way for some time on the so-called South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM), which aims to provide the framework for the development of industrial capacity around the country’s growing renewable-energy sector.

Progress in finalising the masterplan has been slow, but there are hopes that multistakeholder negotiations will be reignited this year following the appointment late last year of Gaylor Montmasson-Clair as an independent SAREM facilitator.

“Project developers and investors are watching closely for the policies that can give them a competitive edge in different markets, and will respond to supportive policies,” the IEA report states.

It notes, too, that only 25% of the announced manufacturing projects globally for solar PV are under construction or beginning construction imminently – the number is around 35% for EV batteries and less than 10% for electrolysers.

The report argues that industrial strategies for clean energy technology manufacturing require an all-of-government approach, closely coordinating climate and energy security imperatives with economic opportunities,