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Global 5G growth continues despite macroeconomic challenges

27th January 2023

By: Natasha Odendaal

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

     

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Despite economic challenges in many regions worldwide, fifth-generation (5G) technology continues to scale faster than any previous mobile generation.

By the end of 2028, global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach five-billion, after surpassing one-billion by the end of 2022, Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report forecasts.

“Communications service providers (CSPs) continue to deploy 5G and the momentum for fixed wireless access (FWA) is accelerating,” says Ericsson executive VP and Networks head Fredrik Jejdling.

The November 2022 edition outlines expectations of global FWA connections growing faster than previously expected – at 19% a year over the next six years – reaching 300-million connections by the end of 2028.

The report indicates that this growth is partly driven by accelerated FWA plans in India, and expected growth in other emerging markets.

“More than three-quarters of CSPs surveyed in more than 100 countries currently offer FWA services. Almost one-third of CSPs are offering FWA over 5G, compared with one-fifth a year ago,” the Ericsson Mobility Report reveals, noting that nearly 40% of the new 5G FWA launches in the past 12 months have been in emerging markets.

Meanwhile, between July and September 2022, there were about 110-million 5G subscriptions additions, bringing the total to about 870-million.

With forecasts that 5G had reached one-billion subscriptions by the end of 2022, two years faster than fourth-generation (4G) did following its launch, 5G remains the fastest-scaling mobile connectivity generation.

“Key drivers include the timely availability of devices from multiple vendors, with prices falling faster than for 4G, and China’s large early 5G deployments,” Ericsson explains.

According to the report, North America and North-East Asia continue to see strong 5G growth, with 5G subscription penetration in the regions reaching an estimated 35% by the end of 2022.

In sub-Saharan Africa, 5G subscriptions will grow from seven-million in 2022 to 150- million by the end of 2028, accounting for 14% of total connections at that time.

Globally, almost 230 CSPs have launched 5G services to date, with more than 700 5G smartphone models announced or launched commercially.

As 5G subscriptions reach five-billion, accounting for 55% of all subscriptions, by 2028, 5G population coverage is projected to reach 85%, while 5G networks are expected to carry about 70% of mobile traffic and account for all contemporary traffic growth.

“Global 4G subscription numbers also continue to rise, growing by about 41-million between July and September 2022. Global 4G subscriptions are expected to reach a peak of about 5.2-billion towards the end of 2022,” Jejdling adds.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Ericsson Middle East and Africa VP and global customer unit head Hossam Kandeel says that second-generation connections still constitute about half of the total mobile subscriptions.

These are projected to decline as subscribers migrate to 4G and 5G networks.

“4G will be the main contributor to new connections up to 2028, accounting for more than half of all mobile subscriptions at that time. Currently, 4G represents 29% of mobile subscriptions in sub-Saharan Africa, with 4G subscriptions expected to rise from 260- million in 2022 to 600-million in 2028.”

“Connectivity in Africa plays a critical role in the upliftment of the continental economy. The growth in 5G and 4G network coverage will become a major catalyst for innovation, connection and opportunity for Africans everywhere,” Kandeel says, adding that the monthly data traffic per smartphone in the region will increase by 26% from 4.6 GB a month in 2022 to 18 GB a month in 2028.

Overall mobile subscriptions are expected to have surpassed 8.4-billion at the end of 2022 and reach 9.2-billion by the end of 2028.

“Most subscriptions are associated with smartphones. At the end of 2022, 6.6-billion smartphone subscriptions are estimated, accounting for about 79% of all mobile phone subscriptions,” Jejdling concludes.

Edited by Martin Zhuwakinyu
Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

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