VANCOUVER (miningweekly.com) – Analysis of the latest data published by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed global surplus copper output of 150 000 t in February, despite disruptions at massive key mines in Chile and Indonesia.

The ICSG ascribed the surplus mainly to a sharp decline in Chinese apparent demand, with China currently representing 47% of the world's copper refined consumption.

World mine output is estimated to have declined by about 2% in the first two months of 2017, with concentrate production declining by about 1% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) declining by 5%.

The ICSG said the decline in world production was mainly owing to a 10% decline in Chilean mine output on the back of a strike at the Escondida mine and lower output from Codelco mines, a decline in Canada and Mongolia concentrates production of 19% and 23%, respectively, owing to lower grades in planned mining sequencing, and a 10% decline in Indonesian concentrate production, as output was constrained by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April.

However, the overall decline was partially offset by an 18% and 15% rise in Mexican (concentrate and SX-EW) and Peruvian (concentrate) output, respectively, both countries benefiting from new and expanded capacity that was not yet fully available in the comparable period of last year.

On a regional basis, production rose by 5% in Europe (including Russia) and 10% in Oceania, while declining by 4% in the Americas and 6% in Africa, and remaining essentially unchanged in Asia.

World refined production is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged in the first two months of the year, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning) declining by 3% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 11%.

World apparent refined usage is estimated to have declined by about 3% in the year-to-February period, as preliminary data indicates that although world ex-China usage might have grown by around 2.5%, growth was more than offset by a 9.5% decline in Chinese apparent demand.

Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in unreported stocks) declined by 9.5% because net imports of refined copper declined by 29%, offsetting refined copper output rising 4%.

The average copper price so far this year is 9% higher year-on-year at $5 802.07/t, having topped $6 145/t on February 14, and recording a low of $5 500.50/t on January 4.

As of the end of April, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX and SHFE) totalled 623 917 t, an increase of 84 844 t (16%) from stocks held at the end of December. Compared with the December 2016 levels, stocks were down at the LME (-3%) and up at COMEX (51%) and SHFE (33%).