JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – A stronger rand negatively impacted on rand gold prices in the fourth quarter of 2017, SA Bullion reports.
For the fourth quarter, the gold picture in rand was quite different from that of the dollar, as the latter weakened against major currencies.
"Secondly, the rand strengthened massively against all currencies. These currency moves conspired to deliver poor performance for gold in rand," Davies noted.
For the quarter, gold in rand lost value to return -7.4% and for the year made a small gain with a return of 1.3%. In the space of just three months, the rand/dollar exchange rate moved from R13.53 to R12.46.
This change represented appreciation of nearly 8% for the rand, "[which] in anybody's language is huge".
Meanwhile, SA Bullion MD Hilton Davies pointed out that the economy, credit ratings and political leadership would remain key concerns for South Africa in the year ahead.
"[The] World Bank expects South African economic growth for 2017 to come in at a dismal 0.6%. It expects growth in 2018 to pick up marginally and achieve 1.1%. In the face of a population growing at 1.6% a year and increasing demands from the poor majority, these figures are grim," Davies pointed out.
South Africa's credit ratings also took a pummelling in 2017. "A reckless, corrupt and self-serving President led the downward spiral such that South Africa's sovereign credit ratings as rated by S&P's Global and Fitch became subinvestment grade or 'junk'," said Davies.
However, the country is headed towards its five-yearly general election in 2019 and, as a forerunner, the ruling party - the African National Congress - held its National Conference in December, with Davies noting that the appointment of Cyril Ramaphosa as party president was a force for good.
However, Fitch Ratings senior director Jan Friederich said policy uncertainty would persist. "The intervening period of two heads and divided decision-making bodies within the ANC make for risk," Davies quoted Friederich as saying.