VANCOUVER (miningweekly.com) – A broad basket of commodities tracked by market research house IHS Markit has declined the most in a single week since mid-April, falling 3.1% last week in a broad retreat.
IHS senior economist Ben Orhan said in a news release to Mining Weekly Online on Thursday that the commodity price index was back to levels last seen in November, with fully two-thirds of its big fourth-quarter rally erased.
“Last week's retreat was also broad based, with all ten sub-indexes falling,” Orhan said. Driving the fall was oil, down 3.9%, and rubber, which crashed 10.9%.
IHS pointed out that Brent crude slipped back below $50/bl last week, as concerns about growing US supply dominated energy markets. It is thought that despite the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries supply agreement being in place, increasing US shale production will continue to fuel excessive global supply.
Last week, ferrous markets were also down strongly, with the sub-index slipping 3.7% as iron-ore prices continued to react to high inventory levels in China.
Oversupply looks to be re-emerging as the primary concern in commodity markets. “Exuberant producers expanded output in the wake of the 2016 price surge, but are now finding that demand is not keeping pace in some sectors,” Orhan noted.
Indeed, the Materials Price Index’s (MPI’s) wide-ranging decline last week came despite a weakening US dollar and strong May manufacturing survey data across the Eurozone.
“What seems to have happened is that markets are focusing on China, where manufacturing appears softer in the latest data. We expect this dynamic to characterise the second half of the year: decelerating Chinese growth contrasting with improvement elsewhere. This suggests an environment where prices receive support but not strong pressure,” Orhan stated.