Global mobile data traffic has increased nearly 300-fold over the past ten years, with mobile data traffic in the third quarter of 2021 alone more than all mobile traffic generated up until the end of 2016.
The latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report shows that mobile network data traffic was up 42% year-on-year during the third quarter of 2021, accounting for about 78 exabytes (EB), including traffic generated by fixed wireless access (FWA) services.
Information and communication technology giant Ericsson now forecasts that total mobile network data traffic is likely to reach 370 EB by the end of 2027.
Since 2011, when the inaugural report was published, there have been 5.5-billion additional smartphone users.
“The deployment of fourth-generation (4G) Long Term Evolution networks has been pivotal in generating 5.5-billion new smartphone connections worldwide, contributing to the market availability of more than 20 000 different 4G device models,” the report says.
In November 2011, the bulk of data traffic across most mobile networks was generated by laptops with cellular connections, with a small number of users generating a large proportion of the data traffic.
“Smartphones were growing in popularity and there were around 720-million smartphone subscriptions globally. The end of 2009, only two years earlier, was the first time the volume of monthly data traffic exceeded voice traffic, and also the year 4G was launched.
“The visible market drivers at the time led us to underestimate the pace of smartphone and 4G subscription growth – and thereby also traffic growth on handheld devices – while overestimating the potential growth of 4G-connected laptops and tablets, as the smartphone became the device of choice for connecting other devices over WiFi to the mobile network,” the Ericsson Mobility Report outlines.
Further, the report indicates a much earlier technology life cycle of fifth-generation (5G) devices, with 5G handsets currently accounting for 23% of global volumes, compared with 8% of 4G handsets at the corresponding point in its life cycle.
“The premise that 5G will become the fastest deployed mobile generation to date has been enhanced with an updated estimate of close to 660-million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2021.”
The increase is due to stronger than expected demand in China and North America, driven in part by decreasing prices of 5G devices.
During the third quarter of 2021, there was a net addition of 98-million 5G subscriptions globally, compared with 48-million new 4G subscriptions.
By the end of 2021, 5G networks covered an estimated two-billion people.
According to Ericsson’s latest forecasts, 5G is expected to account for about 50% of all mobile subscriptions worldwide – covering 75% of the world’s population and carrying 62% of the global smartphone traffic – by 2027.
“Mobile communication has had an incredible impact on society and business over the last ten years. Our latest Ericsson Mobility Report shows that the pace of change is accelerating, with technology playing a crucial role,” adds Ericsson executive VP and head of networks Fredrik Jejdling.
Broadband Internet of Things (IoT) has surpassed the second-generation (2G) and third-generation (3G) technologies as the segment that connects the largest share of IoT applications, accounting for 47% of all cellular IoT connections by the end of 2021, compared with 37% for 2G/3G and 16% for massive IoT technologies.
“New forecasts reaffirm the rapid acceleration of massive IoT deployments in coming years, spanning use cases such as e-health wearables, logistical asset tracking, environmental monitoring and smart meters and smart manufacturing tracking and monitoring devices,” the Ericsson Mobility Report highlights.
Massive IoT deployments are forecast to account for 51% of all cellular IoT connections by 2027.
FWA connections are forecast to grow almost threefold, from 88-million by the end of 2021 to about 230-million in 2027.
Almost half of these connections are expected to be carried over 5G networks.
“On the surface, it seems quite straightforward to expect continued growth of 5G subscriptions and thereby traffic-per-device growth. However, as 5G population coverage increases, we could expect some new disruptive events, maybe in the mid-2020s, that take advantage of 5G capabilities in totally new ways, be it with new devices, business models or applications.
“With the emergence of mirror worlds, hyperconnectivity and artificial intelligence, it is also possible that the digitalisation of industries and businesses will accelerate more than we can imagine today,” Ericsson comments.
“On top of this, there are a number of global societal and geopolitical forces that will inevitably shape the future. The climate crisis and global fragmentation, together with a postpandemic society with increased virtual connections, will also change the way we act, live and work.”