JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – As Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported sluggish mining output growth for November, warnings emerged of potentially subdued production growth going forward.
The ‘Mining production and sales’ report for November, released on Tuesday, showed a 5.1% year-on-year increase, bolstered by gold, which contributed 4.2 percentage points, manganese ore, which contributed 1.5 percentage points and iron-ore, with a 1.3 percentage point contribution.
Gold output was up 35.5%, manganese ore 33.6% and diamonds 27%.
November’s overall production increase represented a sharp slowdown from the upwardly revised 23% jump in overall output in October, BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities economist Jeffrey Schultz said in a statement.
Seasonally adjusted mining production fell 2.9% in November from October’s month-on-month rise of 7.4%.
Platinum-group metals (PGMs) production registered the highest month-on-month decline, at -11.3%, exacerbated by industrial action at Northam’s platinum mine during the month under review, Schultz explained.
“While the weaker currency is certainly helping to prop up the local mining sector, at least from a profitability perspective, we remain concerned over the prospects for further labour unrest in the coming months,” he added, noting the “heating up” of labour relations as 2014 kicked off.
“If not managed well, this has the potential to be another tumultuous year for the South African mining sector and, therefore, warrants close attention in the coming weeks.”
The group’s outlook for the year ahead remained cautious, despite Schultz’s view that a second consecutive month in the black for mining production growth would contribute positively to fourth-quarter production-side gross domestic product growth.
“The trend in total mining production is likely to remain generally subdued, constrained by moderate growth prospects globally, while domestic factors, such as rising production costs, will also have a negative impact,” Nedbank’s economic unit added.
Meanwhile, Stats SA reported that mineral sales for October jumped 16.9% year-on-year, from 8.7% in September, on the back of a 5.4 percentage point contribution from PGMs and a 5.1 percentage point contribution each from iron-ore and coal.
Seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices rose 3% in October, following month-on-month changes of -8% in September and 8.4% in August.