JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) conference has ended in Rome with a moderate collective gold price forecast of $1 405/oz by the time the LBMA meets again, in Lima, in November next year.
During the two-day LBMA conference, more than 800 delegates from 300-plus companies listened to 50 speakers present on the merits of short-term and long-term gold investment – and they left seeing the gold price fall below the $1 300/oz trading band.
LBMA Rome 2013's collective gold price forecast of a sub-10% potential 2014 rise was made when Citibank conversely put gold firmly in a bear market and Fitch Ratings assumed a gold price of $1 200/oz for the next two years.
The latest collective forecast of the LBMA – the London-based trade association that represents the gold wholesale market and which sets refining standards, good trading practices and standard documentation – is way off the $1 921/oz predicted at a previous LBMA conference, where price polling has become a tradition.
While physical gold demand remains high, with China approaching a record 1 000 t consumption figure by year-end, insufficient investment demand is continuing to weigh on the price.
World Gold Council Far East MD Albert Cheng, who spoke to Mining Weekly Online by phone from the sidelines of the LBMA Rome 2013 conference on Tuesday, said the total gold market remained on track to attain the 4 000 t level for the year.
While Sharps Pixley CEO Ross Norman noted this week that this year marked the shifting of the Western-centric paper market to the Eastern-centric physical market, HSBC Securities US commodities analyst James Steel told Bloomberg in Rome that high levels of Chinese demand would be insufficient to stave off the current monetary and investment negativity.
Despite Indian gold consumption set to be less this year than last year owing to government import restrictions, Cheng said 2013 Indian consumption remained poised to record 1 000 t of gold sales by year-end.
In 2012, China produced 342 t of gold and consumed 840 t, importing 498 t, with Chinese people buying 24-carat gold jewellery and gold bar and tending not to recycle as much as other consuming countries.