China is seeking to become what its government calls “a modestly prosperous society” by 2020. The instrument to achieve this will be the thirteenth Five-Year Plan, which starts this year. Beijing has used the Five-Year Plan framework for national development since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. “In the next five years, we are in the period of the thirteenth Five-Year Plan, in which we are going to reach our per capita GDP (gross domestic product) target of $10 000,” Chinese Deputy Minister, State Committee of Social Sciences, Ministry of Education, Professor Gu Hailiang told the Human Sciences Research Council in Pretoria recently. China’s GDP per capita was $7 500 last year, he reported. In 2010, it was $4 500 (World Bank figure) and back in 1999 it was (also according to the World Bank) about $870.
“The concept of the modestly prosperous society was first raised by Comrade Deng Xiaoping [Chinese leader 1978-1992],” he pointed out. “By the year 2020, the strategic goal of China is to finish building a modestly prosperous society. One year before that, 2019, marks the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, which was founded in 1949. And one year after the planned 2020 watershed, that marks also the hundredth anniversary of the foundation of the Communist Party of China, in 1921.”
The achievement of a modestly prosperous society will, affirmed Gu, show that the Communist Party “has fulfilled its revolutionary task as well as its construction task. By the year 2020, the livelihoods and living standards of the Chinese people will be upgraded substantially”.
The successful implementation of the thir-teenth Five-Year Plan is also expected to ensure that China will overcome the middle income trap. (This term refers to developing countries that achieve middle incomes per person but then fail to move on and achieve high incomes as found in the developed economies. Many countries have been caught in the middle income trap.) By so doing, China will set an example for the world.
Gu was frank about the many challenges facing his country. One of these is growing inequality, both in income and in wealth. Seventy million Chinese still live in poverty. “China has a population of 1.3-billion, but the 70-million poverty figure is still a large problem.” The plan is to absorb 40-million into jobs at their current locations, move 10-million to new job locations, while the remaining 20-million, not capable of working, would be absorbed by the social security network. The country is seeking, for the first time in its history, to eliminate absolute poverty.
He noted that China’s economic development and political stability over the next five years will depend on whether or not it can create the required jobs. This will require economic growth. “In order to create more jobs, we need to achieve a certain percentage of GDP growth,” highlighted Gu. “We have to maintain a 7% GDP growth rate every year.” So the country is targeting an increase in its GDP growth rate from last year’s 6.9% to 7.3%.