NEW YORK – Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is betting that Greece will experience a dramatic political turnaround, with elections called within a year, that will spur a rally across the nation’s assets.
Bass, founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management, owns Greek bank stocks, which he said are trading at a quarter of book value and provide the “opportunity to make several turns of your money unlevered over the next few years.” Once elections are called, Greek stocks and bonds will rally 20% to 30% over the course of a week, he told Bloomberg Television Friday from his ranch in Texas.
Bass has taken issue with the International Monetary Fund’s requirements of the European nation, writing in a Bloomberg View column last month that the lender is "torturing the country in a misguided effort to get its money back.” The IMF has demanded a rigorous review of Greek commercial bank assets before the end of its bailout program next August. Bass thinks the economy, with the highest unemployment rate in the euro area, is finally beginning to show signs of a turnaround.
“You’re starting to see green shoots, you’re starting to see the banks do the right things finally in Greece, and you’re about to have new leadership,” he said. The country will have some “marquee privatisations” over the next two years, he added.
Early elections may occur if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras calls them or if the government loses its parliamentary majority. Greece’s current administration is a coalition of Tsipras’s Syriza party and the smaller Independent Greeks party, who together only have a majority of three in Greece’s 300-seat Parliament.
Under Tsipras, some foreign investors have faced obstacles. Eldorado Gold suspended operations in September, citing delays in acquiring routine permits. While the company has since received a pair of permits required for a gold mining investment in northern Greece following international pressure on the Greek government, the company cautioned that a number of outstanding matters remain.
Eldorado Gold is the largest foreign investor in Greece and the dispute comes as the country tries to lure foreign capital to help it recover from its debt crisis. Since 2010, the country has been under bailout programmes with stringent belt-tightening requirements. It has been working on attracting investments like Eldorado’s to tackle high unemployment.