Fifth-generation (5G) technology is expected to cover up to 65% of the world’s population and handle 45% of global mobile data traffic by 2025, the latest ‘Ericson Mobility Report’ reveals.
Globally, the number of 5G subscriptions will exceed 2.6-billion within the next six years, as 5G goes from “strength to strength”, driven by sustained momentum and a rapidly developing 5G ecosystem as networks are built out across the world.
“It is encouraging to see that 5G now has broad support from almost all device makers. In 2020, 5G-compatible devices will enter the volume market, which will scale up 5G adoption,” Ericsson executive VP and head of networks Fredrik Jejdling says.
The November 2019 edition of the report notes that 5G subscriptions will reach 13-million globally by the end of 2019, as service providers continue to switch on 5G and more 5G devices became available during the third quarter of the year.
“[The year] 2019 is the year leading communications service providers in Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East and North America switched on their 5G networks,” he says, pointing out that South Korea has already seen a big 5G uptake since its April 2019 launch, with more than three-million subscriptions collectively recorded by the country’s service providers by the end of September.
China’s launch of 5G in late October has led to an update of the estimated 5G subscriptions as at the end of 2019 from 10-million to 13-million,” Jejdling continues.
With its current momentum, Ericsson expects 5G subscription uptake to be significantly faster than that of long-term evolution (LTE).
The most rapid uptake is expected in North America, with 74% of mobile subscriptions in the region forecast to be 5G by the end of 2025, followed by North East Asia at 56% and Europe at 55%.
Meanwhile, fourth-generation (4G) and LTE technology remains a strong connectivity enabler in many parts of the world.
The number of 4G/LTE subscriptions increased by 190-million during the quarter to reach a total of 4.2-billion, or 52% of all mobile subscriptions.
While LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology by subscription during the forecast period, it will reach its peak in 2022 at 5.4-billion subscriptions, before declining to about 4.8-billion subscriptions by the end of 2025 as LTE subscriptions migrate to 5G.
Third-generation WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions decline by 50-million and second-generation (2G) GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions decline by 70-million.
“We anticipate a slower decline for 2G subscriptions than previously estimated, particularly in the Middle East and Africa region,” Jejdling says, pointing out that it is in part due to the longer life cycles of 2G feature phones and the relatively higher cost of smartphones.
Other technologies declined by about ten-million during the third quarter under review.
Meanwhile, the total number of mobile subscriptions reached eight-billion, with 61-million subscriptions added during the quarter – a growth of 3% year-on-year.