Tin price forecast to remain elevated
Despite spot prices “losing steam” on the back of an uptick in global production, tin prices will remain elevated and continue on an upward trend over the next few years, the latest Fitch Solutions report shows.
While the average tin price for 2018 is expected to remain at $20 500/t, upward projections driven by a widening global market deficit will see the prices rise to an average of $22 500/t by 2022.
Tin prices failed to break the $22 000/t mark in January, falling to $20 080/t by August, Fitch’s commodity price forecast report outlines.
Over the next three to six months, tin prices will continue to contract slightly, owing to increasing output among major producers.
“We expect tin prices to trade between $19 800/t and $21 000/t over the coming months,” the group says, noting the surplus in the global refined tin market, driven by higher production in Indonesia and China.
However, in the long term, tin prices are expected to gradually rise, particularly as demand grows and the global deficit widens.
Rising tin prices will further support an acceleration in global tin mine production growth from 2018 to 2027, compared with the period 2008 to 2017.
This acceleration will still fall short of demand, with consumption expected to grow 1.6% between 2018 and 2027, compared with 0.8% from 2008 to 2017.
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