The increasing demand for platinum- group metals (PGMs) is expected to climb in proportion to the greater demand for and adoption of catalytic converters for motor vehicles, which is spurred by the international appetite for new vehicles and stricter emissions regulations, says platinum producer Lonmin.

Catalytic converters are cylinders used in the exhaust systems of motor vehicles to scrub harmful emissions, whereby the catalytic converter employs coatings of PGMs, including platinum, palladium and/or rhodium in honey- comb-like structures. Exhaust emissions are forced through these structures and converted into less harmful compounds, such as water vapour and nitrogen gas.

According to a study released in October by McKinsey, new-vehicle sales are expected to increase among the burgeoning middle class in Brazil, Russia, India and China. In these regions, new-vehicle sales are expected to cumulatively reach 440-million by 2020 – almost half of the volume of vehicles currently in circulation worldwide.

Lonmin CEO Ben Magara says, if it is true that transportation accounts for up to 30% of the world’s greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, then the environmental implications of harmful emissions cannot be ignored.

“From a mitigation and adaptation perspective, policymakers [are presented] with both a challenge and an opportunity,” he says, highlighting it as a challenge because these coun- tries are generally between four and ten years behind Europe in terms of their regulatory framework governing emissions.

Magara notes that there is an opportunity in developing countries starting at a low base with low demand, as they are only just starting to build at a time when vehicle sales in Europe and the US are trending sideways.

In Africa, where six countries account for 71% of Africa’s 6.2-million vehicles, namely Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria, Angola, Egypt and Morocco, three of these countries have little in terms of emissions controls. Morocco leads, as 50% of its vehicles comply with Euro 4 emissions standards. However, in South Africa, the current standard is Euro 2 for petrol and diesel vehicles. Each Euro standard is stricter and requires cleaner emissions than the one it proceeds – for example, Euro 5 is a stricter and cleaner emissions standard than Euro 4.

In terms of the Brics countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), every country but Russia – which like South Africa, has adopted the Euro standard – have introduced their own emissions standards. The most ambitious of these being comparable to Euro 5.

However, Magara believes a uniform policy is urgently needed for emissions controls to align the emerging markets with global best practice. “This will have a profoundly positive impact on the health and wellbeing of billions of people, while also bringing a measure of stability to the resources sector currently supplying the raw material used to make this possible,” he says, adding that the stability to the raw material industry will be a worthwhile sustainability goal.

However, Magara notes that such motions will be unpopular despite evidence of the relationship between air quality and health. “The introduction of effective emissions controls carry cost implications that will affect refi- nery upgrades and increase the unit costs per vehicle – both of which are likely to be passed [on] to the consumer.”

He adds that, currently, many original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) do not supply catalytic converters when exporting to Africa, because poor fuel quality – a widespread problem in Africa – compromises vehicle performance.

Current Opportunity
Magara says the 2015 United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference – better known as COP21 – which took place during November and December 2015, presented the opportunity to implement harmonised global emissions legislations on par with Euro 6.

He points out that, if this were to happen, it would address the high degree of complexity surrounding the current fragmented regulatory framework “while ensuring that policymakers commit the necessary budget and resources to enforce [these] regulations”.

However, to achieve this “win-win” situation, vision and leadership will be required from a range of stakeholders.

Magara notes that there was a narrow window of opportunity at COP 21 to ensure that deve- lopment and the environment are not set on a collision course. “The time is now for the big six African economies to join forces with the automotive OEMs, the oil and gas industry as well as international organisations, such as the UN, the World Bank and the African Union, to deliver to the developing world its ‘Kyoto moment’,” stresses Magara, referring to the 1997 signing of the Kyoto Protocol, which commits signatories to reduce GHG emissions.