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Trump says trade wars 'aren't so bad' in answer to Europe threat

7th March 2018

By: Bloomberg

  

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WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to slapping tariffs on steel and aluminum, dismissing concerns about a global trade war and saying the US has suffered from poor trading conditions with other nations, including those in the European Union.

Just hours later, White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, who had tried in vain to head off the tariffs, announced his resignation. The President’s fresh praise of the tariffs on Tuesday amounted to a public rebuff of Cohn, the director of the National Economic Council.

“When we’re behind every single country, trade wars aren’t so bad,” Trump said Tuesday in a press conference at the White House with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven. “The trade war hurts them, not us.”

Trump’s remarks came after his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, had sought to offer assurances during congressional testimony that the US didn’t want to start a trade war.

Trump’s call for tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has prompted an outcry not just from trading partners but also within his administration and the Republican Party over concerns they will spark a global trade war. Republican lawmakers are pressuring the president to at least curtail the tariffs’ reach to certain forms of the metals or by targeting a limited number of countries.

The threat of retaliation and escalating  tit-for-tat penalties damaging growth around the world is already rising. The EU warned earlier Tuesday it would respond with its own 25% tariff to hit $3.5-billion of American goods. The bloc is targeting iconic US brands produced in key Republican states on a range of consumer, agricultural and steel products that will be levied if Trump goes through on his tariff threat, according to a list drawn up by the European Commission.

Trump said that the EU has been “particularly tough” on US products, yet is able to sell its own goods – like cars – to Americans. Trump warned that he would impose a 25% penalty on European car imports if the bloc carried out its threat to retaliate.

“We have to straighten this out,” Trump said. “We really have no choice.”

As the rhetoric intensified, Mnuchin and Republican congressional leaders tried to tamp down fears of a global trade war.

“We are not looking to get into trade wars,” Mnuchin said during a congressional committee hearing when asked about the tariffs, adding that he is “supportive” of imposing the broad duties Trump announced.

But Republican lawmakers are pressuring Trump to at least limit the reach of the tariffs. One of Trump’s closest Senate allies, David Perdue, suggested on Tuesday that the president may be open to changes on how the levies might be applied, sending US stocks higher, with the S&P 500 Index closing up 0.3%.

“There is a lot of concern among Republican senators that this could metastasize into a broader trade war,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, told reporters. Asked if White House is listening, he replied, “I think they are.”

Cohn had been planning to bring executives from companies that depend on the metals together with Trump later this week to make the case that the tariffs would cost more jobs than they save and damage the US economy, according to two people familiar with the plan.

Republicans in Congress are undertaking an unusual public campaign to thwart broad tariffs of 25% on imported steel and 10% on aluminum. House Speaker Paul Ryan on Tuesday urged the president to “be more surgical” in penalizing trade abuses to prevent “any kind of unintended consequences or collateral damage.”

Senator Orrin Hatch, the Utah Republican who is chairman of the Finance Committee, released a letter he was sending to Trump expressing his “deep concerns” and warning that the tariffs would undermine the economic benefits of the tax cuts the president signed into law in December.

The split in the Republican ranks on trade is coming to a head as the party struggles to hold a previously safe House seat in a special election in steel country. Trump plans to visit the area on Saturday, a few days before the vote in southwestern Pennsylvania, where a recent poll shows a Democrat slightly ahead in a district Trump carried by 20%age points in 2016.

Tariff supporters are pressing Trump to announce the measures during his visit to mobilize GOP voters, but Cohn is pushing back with the meeting of executives to make the case that trade sanctions will damage the economy and hurt the president’s own re-election campaign in 2020. The White House session with Trump later this week will include representatives of breweries, beverage-can manufacturers and automakers, along with the oil industry, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a policy disagreement.

ADVISERS 'COME AND GO'
It’s unclear whether Cohn’s campaign or the threat of losing his top economic adviser will be enough to change the president’s mind. Trump said in a tweet Tuesday there may be more staff turnover, even as he denied his administration is chaotic.

"People will always come & go, and I want strong dialogue before making a final decision,” Trump said in a Twitter posting. “I still have some people that I want to change (always seeking perfection). There is no Chaos, only great Energy!"

The tariffs could reduce US growth by as much as 0.2%age point this year, and further risk lies in how trading partners respond, Barclays Plc economists said. While a tight job market and tax cuts are likely to keep America’s expansion humming along, the trade tensions could weigh on growth and boost inflation more than desired by Fed policy makers.

Mnuchin told a House Appropriations subcommittee that Canada, the US’s biggest supplier of steel, could gain relief from the tariffs along with Mexico if they can reach an agreement with Trump on renegotiating Nafta. The tariffs won’t apply to the US neighbours if a new trade deal is concluded, he said.

He added that the Nafta renegotiation is an administration “priority,” along with shifting trade with China to a “fair and balanced” relationship.

CONGRESSIONAL RESPONSE
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said the White House needs to adjust any tariffs to address trade imbalances with China, rather than allies like Canada and the EU.

“I believe that the president’s instincts to go after China are the right thing to do,” Schumer said. But the initial announcement on tariffs was “not well targeted.”

Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado said many Republican lawmakers oppose the tariffs and he has “no doubt Congress would be forced to act” to end them if Trump proceeds.

"There is a series of legislative actions that could be taken to reverse the decision, obviously with the president supporting them they would have to be done in a way that would overcome any action that he would take, but we still have time,” Gardner said.

However Republican Senator Jeff Flake said he doesn’t think enough Republicans would cross the president by passing legislation to reverse the tariffs, even as he called the measure “completely, utterly irrational.”

Ways and Means Committee chairperson Kevin Brady of Texas and other House Republicans are seeking to blunt the tariffs’ impact by adding an “exclusion process” allowing American companies to petition for duty-free access for imports that aren’t available from US sources.

The lawmakers want existing contracts for aluminum and steel to be exempted from tariffs. They also called for a review of the effects of tariffs on the economy “to determine if a different approach would better serve the interests of our American workers, job creators, and consumers.”

“Done right the president could impact trade positively,” Brady told reporters Tuesday. “We want to help him tailor it.”

If Trump follows through with the tariffs he proposed, the Senate Finance Committee should consider holding hearings, said John Cornyn of Texas, the No. 2 Republican in the chamber.

“The part that concerns me the most is the potential for retaliatory tariffs and a so-called trade war and other areas that would affect some of the more vulnerable sectors of our economy, like agriculture,” Cornyn said.

Edited by Bloomberg

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