JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) - Mine nationalisation in South Africa was not an imminent policy threat, nor even a fully fledged policy consideration. But the debate could be important in helping to shape the future leadership dynamics within the governing African National Congress (ANC), Control Risks senior Southern Africa analyst Anne Fruehauf said on Monday.

Briefing the media on the international risk consultancy's annual "RiskMap 2010", Fruehauf barely referred to the prospect of nationalisation. In her formal presentation, she said only that, in the context of its hosting of the FIFA World Cup, there would probably be an attempt, during the course of the year, to downplay issues such as the debate on nationalisation, service delivery discord and the ongoing difficulties in Zimbabwe, so as to "not disrupt the big party".

"It's [the nationalisation debate] all about internal party dynamics. It's all about players positioning themselves ahead of 2012 [the ANC's next conference to elect its office bearers]," Fruehauf averred, adding that, "at this stage, it is not a concrete policy debate".

"At this stage, nationalisation is in no way imminent, Fruehauf stressed. But the debate might serve to "crystalise a lot of the internal power struggles" between the three main factions in the ANC - the left, the nationalists/populists, and the business component.

The issue of nationalisation had been given impetus by the ANC Youth League and its controversial president, Julius Malema, but had been dismissed as a policy option by Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu, who told mining investors in early February that nationalisation would not take place "in my lifetime".

Shabangu was immediately labelled as "greedy" by the league, which also threatened to dislodge any ANC leader who sought to oppose its policy proposal.

On Sunday, the league's spokesperson Floyd Shivambu wrote an article in the City Press outlining that it envisaged that nationalisation could take various forms: from 100% public ownership, through to majority ownership, or even partnership arrangements with the private sector.

The opinion piece added that it could involve expropriation with or without compensation, but that it would not be a bail-out for indebted mining corporations, as some had speculated.

However, despite this recent attempt at adding flesh to the bones of the policy proposal, Fruehauf argued that the debate was still more symbolic of the very disparate set of factions within the ruling alliance than a real policy discussion.

"While the markets have been very concerned by the push from the unions and the South African Communist Party, they are gradually having to come to terms with the reality that there is a nationalist/populist front that might well become pitted against the left," she said.

Raising the discussion was also an attempt by the league to test the boundaries of its informal influence, which had seemingly flourished in an atmosphere of public "appeasement" by government and the ANC.

"So the youth league is asserting itself . . . [knowing] that they have very little influence on concrete policymaking, and very little capacity to propose concrete legislation. But what they are also doing, is they are expanding their informal influence over government," she explained.

The Control Risks analysis appeared to be aligned with those prevailing in the mining industry. But on the whole, executives have refrained from discussing the matter publically, preferring instead to canvass its seriousness, or otherwise, in private discussions with government at various levels.

However, Gold Fields CEO Nick Holland had gone so far as to suggest that the talk of the nationalisation was nothing more than "hot air".

"Is nationalisation likely to generate value for South Africa? It won't. We've seen what nationalisation has done in other parts of Africa. It destroyed the Copperbelt. The Copperbelt's never been the same, even after it was privatised again.

"I think it is a lot of hot air. I don't think we should get too worked up about it, and what we need to do is rather to focus on delivering the value in our business," Holland added.

Nevertheless, some investors have been slightly unnerved by the continuing talk of nationalisation, with JSE business development and marketing director Noah Greenhill telling  Mining Weekly Online recently that such a public debate was not good for South Africa's reputation as an attractive investment destination.