https://www.miningweekly.com

Copper production declined in first ten months of 2017 – ICSG

23rd January 2018

By: Schalk Burger

Creamer Media Senior Deputy Editor

     

Font size: - +

Worldwide copper mine production declined 2.6% in the ten months to October 2017, while concentrate production declined by 2.2% and production through solvent extraction-electrowinning declined by 4.3% in the same period, according to the intergovernmental copper body The International Copper Study Group (ICSG).

On a regional basis, mine production in Africa is estimated to have declined by 1%, in the Americas by 3%, in Asia by 4% and in Oceania by 3%, while increasing in Europe (including Russia) by 2%.

There was a 2% decline in production in Chile, the world’s biggest copper-producing country, which was negatively affected by the strike at the Escondida mine and lower output from Codelco mines.

Reductions in concentrate production in Argentina, Canada and Mongolia of 55%, 17% and 17% respectively, owing to lower grades in planned mining sequencing and Argentina’s Alumbrera mine approaching end of life, were also reported for the first ten months of 2017.

Further, the ICSG reported a 15% decline in Indonesian concentrate production, as output was constrained by a temporary ban on concentrate exports that started in January and ended in April, while a 12% decline in production in the US, mainly as a result of lower ore grades, reduced mining rates and unfavourable weather conditions at the beginning of the year, the statement said.

However, these reductions in output were partially offset by 32% and 3.5% increases in Kazakhstan and Peru’s concentrate output, respectively, with both countries benefiting from new and expanded capacity that was not yet fully available in the same period last year. Brazil, Mexico, Myanmar, Spain and Sweden also contributed to world growth.

Meanwhile, world refined copper production is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged in the first ten months of 2017, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning) declining by around 2% and secondary production from scrap increasing by 9%.

Increased availability of scrap allowed for the increase of world secondary refined production, notably in China. The main contributor to growth in world refined copper production was China, which increased production by 5%. China was followed by India at 7% and some EU countries recovering from maintenance shutdowns in 2016.

Overall growth, however, was offset by an 8% decline in Chile, the second-largest refined copper producer, where both primary electrolytic refined production and electrowinning production declined.

“Production also declined in the third and fourth world-leading refined copper producers, namely, Japan, which declined by 4%, and the US, which declined by 10%,” the ICSG release stated.

Further, on a regional basis, refined copper output is estimated to have increased in Asia by 3% and in Europe by 3.5%, while declining in Africa by 2%, in the Americas by 8% and in Oceania by 10%.

On the demand side, apparent world refined use is estimated to have increased modestly by 0.2% during the first ten months of 2017, partly owing to improved scrap supply constraining world refined copper use growth globally in 2017.

Additionally, preliminary data indicates that world use excluding China increased by 0.4%. However, Chinese apparent use (currently representing almost 50% of world refined use) remained essentially unchanged.

Further, China’s apparent use (excluding changes in unreported stocks) also remained more or less unchanged as, although refined copper production increased by 5%, net imports of refined copper declined by 11%. Among other major copper-using countries, use increased in India and Japan but declined in the US, Germany and South Korea.

The world refined copper balance for the first ten months of 2017 indicates a deficit of about 175 000 t, which includes revisions to data previously presented, mainly owing to stagnant growth in world refined copper supply.

In the first ten months of 2017, the world refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicates a deficit of around 150 000 t.

“Based on the average of stock estimates provided by independent consultants, China’s bonded stocks increased by around 20 000 t in the first ten months of 2017 from the year-end 2016 level. Bonded stocks increased by about 40 000 t in the same period last year,” the intergovernmental body stated.

In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in unreported stocks.

However, to facilitate global market analysis, an additional line item – Refined World Balance Adjusted for Chinese Bonded Stock Changes – is included that adjusts the world refined copper balance based on an average estimate of changes in unreported inventories provided by three consultants with expertise in China’s copper market.

PRICES AND STOCKS
As at the end of December, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (London Metal Exchange (LME), New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)) totalled 542 529 t, an increase of 3 456 t, or 0.6%, from stocks held at the end of December 2016.

Compared with the December 2016 levels, stocks were down at the LME by 36%, and up at SHFE and COMEX by 3% and 137% respectively.

The average LME cash price for December 2017 was $6 801.16/t, down from the November average of $6 825.57/t.

The 2017 high and low copper prices through the end of December were $6 216/t (on December 28) and $5 466/t (on May 8), respectively, and the year average was $6 165.97/t, which was 27% above 2016 yearly average, the ICSG report concluded.

Edited by Samantha Herbst
Creamer Media Deputy Editor

Comments

Showroom

Schauenburg SmartMine IoT
Schauenburg SmartMine IoT

SmartMine IoT has been developed with the mining industry in mind, to provides our customers with powerful business intelligence and data modelling...

VISIT SHOWROOM 
Aqs image
AQS Liquid Transfer

AxFlow AQS Liquid Transfer (Pty) Ltd is an Importer and Distributor of Pumps in Southern Africa

VISIT SHOWROOM 

Latest Multimedia

sponsored by

Hyphen, Eva mine, ferrochrome price make headlines
Hyphen, Eva mine, ferrochrome price make headlines
27th March 2024
Resources Watch
Resources Watch
27th March 2024

Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):

Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format

Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):

All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.

Already a subscriber?

Forgotten your password?

MAGAZINE & ONLINE

SUBSCRIBE

RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA

SUBSCRIBE

CORPORATE PACKAGES

CLICK FOR A QUOTATION







sq:0.111 0.145s - 90pq - 2rq
Subscribe Now