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NEWS ANALYSIS
Chinese urbanisation still hurtling along
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30th July 2010
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TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – While mining companies were reporting massive profit hikes for the first half of 2010 this week, two noteworthy – and partly related - pieces of information emerged out of China.

Firstly, the government quietly claimed that China has toppled Japan as the world’s second biggest economy.

Secondly, news came out of Beijing, that the urbanisation rate reached 46,6% last year, and just over half of the country’s citizens would be living in cities by 2015.

The China Daily newspaper, quoting figures from the government think-tank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said more than ten-million people are expected to move to cities yearly from 2011 to 2015.

Urbanisation is expected to reach 65% by 2030.

Given that the disposable income for China’s rural population is less than one third than people living in cities, such a massive shift will continue to have profound impacts on demand for resources, driving up prices.

"The growth potential of the vast middle and western regions, together with the rapid development of small cities and towns, could keep the economy on the fast track for at least 15 to 20 years," China Daily quoted CASS director Wei Houkai as saying.

The implications of China’s double-digit gross domestic product growth compounded year after year makes the resources sector an attractive one in the long term, despite likely wobbles in developed-world economies.

China’s economic achievements over the past three decades are almost unprecedented in human history.

Still, it has been hurtling ahead at such a rate that the question must be asked: how long can it really be sustained for in a resource constrained world?

The Chinese government has been taking steps in the last few months to cool the property market and tighten bank lending.

But Standard & Poor’s said on Friday that a property bubble remained the largest threat to China’s economy, as housing prices remained heated despite government’s efforts to curb speculation.

Any significant dip in the property market could cause problems for Beijing.

When a car hits a pothole travelling at 140 km/h, it suffers a lot more damage than when it is going at 60 km/h.

Edited by: Liezel Hill
 
 
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