Chinese coal imports rocketed by 126,3%, year-on-year, in the first half of this year, the country’s customs authorities have revealed. In quantitative terms, the first semester’s coal imports amounted to 48,3-million tons, despite the fact that China is the world’s biggest coal producer.

According to a separate report, from Reuters, between 140 000 t and 150 000 t of the coal imported by China came from South Africa. Total South African coal exports to Asia (excluding India and Pakistan) in the six months to June were some 1,4-million tons, which represented a minor increase over 2008 levels. It is, however, forecast that South African coal exports to Asia will amount to about three-million tons for 2009, a significant increase from last year’s figure of around two-million tons.

The Asian market, in general, is reported to be extremely price sensitive, which is why coal from relatively distant South Africa is rarely competitive in the region. On the other hand, South African coal is extremely competi- tive in the nearby Indian market, and exports to that country have shot up. South African coal is increasingly becoming the preferred option in the Indian market.

Indeed, it is believed that price is the driving force behind China’s rapidly increasing coal imports. Many Chinese collieries are high-cost producers, and consumers of the energy mineral are finding it cheaper to import coal from Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam and even Russia, than to buy it locally.

The China Mining Association reports that the Chinese government’s four-trillion-yuan stimulus package started having an impact during the first half of the year. One result is that coal prices in that country are steadily increasing owing to increased demand from the electricity generation, cement, chemicals and steel industries, as well as the market’s inflationary expectations.

China International Capital Corporation has increased its forecast for the growth in Chinese coal consumption this year from 1,3% to 3,7%, and for next year from 3,2% to 5,3%. Despite the increase in imports, analysts at Chinese brokerage Galaxy Securities report that the country’s two top coal-miners, China Shenhua Energy and China Coal Energy, were able to nego- tiate 10% increases in their contract prices for coal, while a third company, Yanzhou Coal Mining, achieved a 4% increase. Galaxy Securities foresees a growth rate of between 4% and 10% in contract coal prices this year.

The China Mining Association reports that, in the first ten days of July, China’s electricity generation amounted to 83,08-billion kilowatt hours, which was almost the same for the corresponding period last year and was a 9,9% increase month-on-month. During the first 15 days of July, the Chinese power sector consumed 30,47-million tons of coal, an almost 17% increase month-on-month.

For the period January to May, Chinese cement production was 570-million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13,3%, with a growth rate of 4,3%. Demand for cement is expected to grow during the next three months, partly thanks to the Chinese government’s stimulus package. The other reason is the fact that this is the traditional peak cement consumption season. In addition, there is some recovery in the property sector.

Recovery in parts of the chemicals sector has been much weaker, and demand in some downstream industries remains weak.

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