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Carbon dioxide a minor issue, says mathematician
 
27th January 2012
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is not the main cause of global warming, states scientific modelling and mathematical research company Science Speak president Dr David Evans, who will deliver a keynote address at this year’s Investing in African Mining Indaba.

He notes that CO2 is a cause of global warming, but says it is so minor it is not worth doing much about it.

“It has superficial plausibility. Yes, global warming is occurring. Yes, CO2is a greenhouse gas and levels are rising. And, yes, every molecule of CO2 we emit causes some global warming.

“Many nonscientists think that proves the case, but it does not. “In particular, it does not rule out the possibility that CO2 is merely a minor or insignificant player, and that something else is the main cause of global warming,” says Evans.

His Mining Indaba speech will focus on the politics of climate change and its effects on the global mining industry, as these have important political ramifications for the whole industry.

Evans says the event provides an opportunity to engage with the global mining industry and enlighten it about the true extent of the dangers of CO2 emissions, and showcase the crucial data that is being suppressed.

He believes that the issues around CO2 emissions and its global effects “are tearing society apart and making fools and liars out of politicians”.

“Too much regulation and cost aimed at an overaggressive reduction of CO2 emissions, and a hostile political class aiming to rule all countries and from which there will be no escape” are some of the challenges that he feels the mining industry is faced with at present.

“These are challenges that can be resolved by the political system through education and making the data available.”

Evans says he used to be an alarmist who worked at the Australian Greenhouse Office, which is now the Australian Department of Climate Change. However, a few years ago, he realised that the CO2 contribution to climate change was exag- gerated and became more sceptical.

“I agree that our CO2emis- sions cause some warming, but only between 5% and 20% of what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts, owing to a flaw in its story regarding the feedbacks. However, its theory about the effects of CO2 emissions is correct, which is that the anthro- pogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially CO2, will increase to a significant extent in the future, if no global limitation agreements are realised,” he explains.

“Thus, there is no real danger from our emissions – the warming will be mild and, on the whole, beneficial. “Therefore, there is little point in taking expensive measures to curb our CO2 emissions.”

Edited by: Tracy Hancock

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DAVID EVANS There is no real danger from our CO2 emissions – the warming will be mild and, on the whole, beneficial
 

DAVID EVANS There is no real danger from our CO2 emissions – the warming will be mild and, on the whole, beneficial
 
 
 
Facts
With a mathematical, computing and electrical engineering background, Evans helped build the carbon accounting model for the Australian government, from 1999 to 2005, that tracks the carbon in plants, debris, soils, agricultural and forest products.He did a PhD at Stanford University in a statistical area of electrical engineering and while some of his fellow students became financial gurus on Wall Street, Evans returned to Australia to write a maths book. After this he turned to the markets to earn a living and has been an investor and trader since 1990. An obvious bubble developed in the 1990s, and he switched from banks to gold. As good analytic information about gold stocks is hard to come by, Evans started goldnerds.com in 2007, a small company that sells analysis of all the gold companies on the Australian Stock Exchange. Evans is an amateur monetary historian, and his investment interests include how money is created, banks and gold, and confidence tricks.