TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – US alloys specialist Alcoa expected a 360 000 t global aluminium deficit in 2016, down from a 551 000 t surplus in 2015, driven by strong aluminium demand, smaller production increases and smelter curtailments.

The NYSE-listed company also estimated a one-million metric ton alumina deficit in 2016, from a 2.2-million metric ton surplus in 2015, owing to record global alumina demand and refinery curtailments.

The company on Wednesday reported that it had made progress towards reaching its corporate three-year targets, while work to separate the company’s upstream and downstream business segments were on track for completion in the second half of 2016.

Alcoa had in 2013 set business improvement targets, which it was expecting to hit in 2016.

Its global rolled products segment was to achieve about $1-billion of revenue growth for the three-year period, with 2016 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per metric ton expected to come in at or above average historical highs of $344.

The engineered products and solutions (EPS) segment was forecast to hit about $3.1-billion of revenue growth between 2013 and 2016, with the adjusted EBITDA margin of about 23% next year.

The transportation and construction solutions division, a new segment formed in third quarter comprising two businesses formerly part of EPS – Alcoa wheel and transportation products and Alcoa building and construction solutions – and the Latin American extrusions business, forecast about $500-million revenue growth over the three-year period, with adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 15% in 2016.

Alcoa also made progress in its upstream businesses, by moving down two points on the global alumina cost curve, to the 23rd percentile in 2015, with the goal to improve the position to the 21st percentile in 2016. It was also on track to achieve its 38th percentile target on the global aluminium cost curve in 2016, from the 43rd percentile this year and expected $1.5-billion in increased margins from 2010 through to 2015, through shaped products from cast houses, by boosting output to 70% of sales estimated in 2015 – on target to reach 74% in 2016.

The company also grew exports of third-party bauxite sales, on target to double shipments in 2016.

Regarding its business separation, Alcoa advised that it had established a well-defined governance structure, led by a steering committee, a separation programme office and functional teams to separate it into two standalone companies. The separation programme office was set up to ensure that all deliverables and deadlines would be met to make the separation effective in the second half of 2016.

It expected to register securities of the two firms with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by mid-2016.