NEW YORK – Alcoa Corp’s bid to stem a year-long profit slide isn’t getting much help from an aluminum market that’s showing little promise of recovery.

The top US producer of the metal sees the aluminum market swinging to a surplus, adding more gloom to a slumping commodity and giving more urgency to a cost-cutting drive after a fourth straight quarterly loss.

The outlook comes as Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has been taking steps to counter the weak market by reducing costs and narrowing its focus to its main metals businesses. The aluminum maker said in October it would sell non-core assets to generate as much as $1-billion in net proceeds. Investors had cheered the plan, sending the stock to its best quarterly performance since 2017 at the end of last year.

Alcoa on Wednesday projected global aluminum supply will exceed demand by as much as one-million metric tons in 2020, fueled by production in China. That compares with a deficit last year of 900 000 t to 1.1-million tons. The manufacturer also reported a wider-than-expected adjusted loss for the fourth quarter.

Aluminum prices have slipped as US-China trade tensions hurt prospects for global manufacturing and economic growth.

Global demand growth will be in a range of 1.4% to 2.4% this year. The company’s final aluminum demand estimate for 2019 was a decline of 0.2% to 0.4%.

Still, the growth in demand won’t be enough to absorb excess supply.

“In aluminum, Chinese overcapacity continues to challenge the global market,” Alcoa CEO Roy Harvey said on the company’s earnings call with analysts Wednesday. “The excess supply of Chinese semis will be exported to the world,” effectively displacing primary aluminum in those markets, he said.

The so-called phase one trade deal the US signed with China on Wednesday may be cause for optimism.

“There are catalysts for positive change,” Harvey said, citing “recent developments that we’ve seen with China, and particularly if we start to advance toward a phase two part of the deal. I think that gives us the catalyst for improvements happening more quickly.”

Alcoa’s statement was released after the close of regular trading in New York, where Alcoa fell 3.1% at 6:38 p.m.