BHP needs to bid about £32 a share for Anglo, JPMorgan says
LONDON - BHP Group would need to boost its latest offer around 30% to reflect fair value for Anglo American and its key copper assets, JPMorgan analysts said in a note.
They raised their price target for London-listed Anglo to £27.75 a share after reexamining the value of its copper assets, and said the discount for the shares to the implied value of BHP's offer was at its greatest level, implying the market sees a deal as unlikely.
Anglo has rejected two bid proposals from BHP. Under UK takeover rules BHP must make a firm offer by May 22, or walk away.
"Anglo’s shares now trade at the greatest discount (-13.6%) to the implied value of BHP’s offer, implying that the market assigns a low probability to BHP’s ability to raise its offer and achieve an agreed deal," JP Morgan analysts said.
"In a 20% (change of control) scenario, we estimate Anglo American plc at ~£32 a share (~$50-billion), or Anglo plc Rump (the entity BHP is seeking to acquire) at $39-billion (£24.79), ~30% higher than the value of BHP’s current offer."
The analysts increased their December 2025 fair value for Anglo Copper by 25% to $27-billion (£17.47 a share) and increased their Anglo price target to £27.75 a share from £26 previously. That factored in their copper reassessment, as well as $4-billion lower capital spending (capex) forecast over 2025 due to the cessation of development capex at the Woodsmith crop nutrient project.
On Monday, Anglo rejected an improved £34-billion ($43-billion) proposal from BHP, saying BHP "continues to significantly undervalue" its business. BHP has proposed Anglo divest its South African platinum and iron ore assets as a pre-condition to an offer for the rest of the company.
Anglo and BHP did not immediately comment on the report.
Comments
Research Reports
Projects
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
ISO-certified Condra manufactures overhead cranes, portal cranes, cantilever cranes and crane components: hoists, drives, end-carriages, brakes and...
VISIT SHOWROOM
FlameBlock is a proudly South African company that engineers, manufactures and supplies fire intumescent and retardant products to the fire...
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
